Calibration
Predicted probability vs realized win rate, in deciles. Diagonal = perfect calibration. Below = under-confident. Above = over-confident.
161
settled bets
Bucket breakdown
| Range | n | Mean predicted | Realized win rate | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 1 | 17.0% | 0.0% | -17.0pp |
| 30–40% | 1 | 35.9% | 100.0% | +64.1pp |
| 40–50% | 4 | 44.2% | 50.0% | +5.8pp |
| 50–60% | 3 | 56.2% | 66.7% | +10.5pp |
| 60–70% | 11 | 64.7% | 72.7% | +8.0pp |
| 70–80% | 18 | 75.4% | 72.2% | -3.2pp |
| 80–90% | 25 | 85.0% | 88.0% | +3.0pp |
| 90–100% | 98 | 98.2% | 96.9% | -1.3pp |